Tropical disturbance shows better organization over Caribbean; expect it to become Tropical Storm Bonnie soon – Orlando Sentinel

A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean shows better organization Wednesday afternoon and could soon be classified as Tropical Storm Bonnie, according to the National Hurricane Center.

“High-resolution visible satellite images suggest the system may be trying to seal off a center south of the ABC Islands, but the surface observations are still inconclusive,” wrote Richard Pasch, a senior hurricane specialist at the NHC. . “Even on radar images of Curaçao, no definitive center can be seen yet. The system can transition to a tropical cyclone at any time.”

A National Oceanic and Atmospheric Hurricane Hunter plane surveyed the system Wednesday afternoon, but found it not organized enough to classify the disruption as a tropical storm. The storm is forecast to strengthen slightly, but not intensify vigorously until this weekend as it approaches the southwestern Caribbean, where the system could become the season’s first hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center’s advisory issued at 11 p.m. Wednesday said heavy rains and tropical storm winds are likely through Thursday morning for the Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela and northern Colombia.

The system is located approximately 65 miles east-southeast of the northern tip of Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph westward at 21 mph, as of the 11 p.m. update. Tropical storm warnings have been suspended for Curaçao and Aruba.

While the system has remained disorganized, hurricane specialists suspect that could change in the next 12 hours.

“One of the reasons the system hasn’t been able to shut down circulation so far is its very high speed,” said Eric Blake of NHC. But models show that the disturbance stabilizes in the evening. After that, the system would have to wait two days to intensify. It could get stronger again by Friday, Blake said.

There is a tropical storm warning for Trinidad and Tobago; Grenada and its dependencies and parts of the Colombian coasts. As it continues west, the system is expected to be near or above Nicaragua Friday night.

The system has tropical storm winds extending outwards as far as 70 miles from the center of the system. If it gets a name, it would be Tropical Storm Bonnie. The NHC gives it a 90% chance of formation in the next five days.

“On its projected track, the system will cross Colombia’s Guajira Peninsula early Thursday and cross the southwestern Caribbean Sea later Thursday and Friday,” the NHC said.

Meteorologists are also keeping their eyes on two other disturbances with a chance of becoming a tropical system.

An area of ​​disruption has increased its showers and thunderstorms overnight and across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. More development is possible, but the system currently remains disorganized. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of forming into a tropical system over the next two to five days as it drifts slowly west over the northern Gulf of Mexico and toward Texas. It is expected to move into the interior of Texas on Thursday.

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft deployed to conduct an investigation showed that the system was poorly organized.

“Slow development is still possible and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before turning northwest and moving inland over Texas later on Thursday. Regardless of the development, heavy rain will fall over parts of parts of the country over the next few days. the Texas coast,” the NHC said.

Also, a tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic causes disorganized rain and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to interact with another tropical wave later this week and be allowed to develop. The NHC gave the wave a 10% chance of turning into a depression in the next two days and a 30% chance in the next five days.

If either system develops, it would be the second system of the season after Tropical Storm Alex, which dumped nearly a foot of rain over parts of Florida earlier this month.

After Bonnie, the next two names would be Colin and Danielle.

A tropical system could be called a tropical depression without getting tropical storm status. It is not named until the system has withstood winds of 39 mph and is not called a hurricane until it has withstood winds of 74 mph.

The 2022 season runs from June to November. 30 is expected to be another above-normal year for storms after the 30 mentioned storms of 2020 and 21 of 2021.

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