After a week 1 in which gamblers put their underdog pick of the week — Chicago over San Francisco — gamblers riding the hot hand again in week 2, rolling with Da Bears to take down their “owner” Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. This time, however, the Bears are not alone, they have company: the Houston Texans.
According to OddsChecker VSfor the past week, the Bears and Texans each got two-thirds (66.7 percent) of the moneyline votes for their games against the Packers and Broncos, respectively. I can understand where gamblers come from. The Broncos offense didn’t look nearly as explosive as we thought in week 1. Russell Wilson looked downright inadequate at times against his former team as he was usually fought by means of Geno Smith. That said, the Broncos were a couple of goal-line fumbles to walk away with the win. Meanwhile, Davis Mills looked competent in Houston’s Week 1 game against a Colts squad that would crush Houston under the heel of their boots. As for the Bears, despite the atrocious weather, Justin Fields looked like a strong leader, marching across the field for two touchdown drives in the second half, while the Packers looked as sloppy as a wet slice of bread on the ground. had fallen and left there for two minutes.
While I would normally say these bets are ridiculous, I can’t help but applaud the underdog bettors based on what happened last weekend. Sure, Rodgers is always bad in Week 1, but who says he won’t be bad two weeks in a row without Davante Adams? The bears have done it before anyway. The last time they managed to win a game as a double-digit underdog was 2013, a week 9 against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. But Rodgers got injured late in the first half of that game and had to be is replaced by Seneca wallace. They say history repeats itself, and by goly, there’s a lot of history lined up for this matchup with Green Bay.
What annoys me most about these bets isn’t even matchup or stats. lt’s tendencies. There’s a saying in sports that pretty much states, “the best time for a big loss is right after an emotional win.” Both the Bears and the Texans achieve huge emotional victories (a draw is not a win, but the fact that Houston forced a draw against a divisional opponent is a big moment in itself), and thus are due to huge disappointments in Week 2. The opposite of that idiom is also true. The best time for a big win is right after a humiliating defeat. I don’t think there were two teams more embarrassed with their performances in Week 1 than the Packers and Broncos. Wilson lost to his former team to his former fans with a much better supporting cast. AA-Ron played a division foe and was ridiculed from Minnesota with his tail between his legs. Both quarterbacks will be out for blood in Week 2.
In addition, both Wilson and Rodgers were on the road in Week 1, but will be home in Week 2. During their careers, both quarterbacks have fared much better at home than on the road. You could say that Wilson was a bit “home” in week 1, but even I would consider that a chore. I would never advise anyone to bet outright on a double digit underdog down the road, but given the potentially huge payout both teams would offer, I won’t blame anyone for trying to chase that payday. That said, both the Packers and Broncos should walk away with fairly easy wins. If they don’t, it’s time to start worrying about both squads.